Vegas Shooting: Stacking of Improbabilities

When performing an investigation, you evaluate evidence based on probabilities for things that are not certain.  We are certain that automatic weapons were fired with particular bullets because of the rate of fire in the footage, the number of people killed, and bullets found on the crime scene.  The stuff of physics, chemistry, and the like are straight-forward.

What makes this story so crazy are the reports of activity, that, when you add up the probabilities, it comes down to almost impossible, or certain.

List of Low Probability Evidence:

• 64 year old dude takes 23 plus weapons into a hotel room, and nobody notices (gun store purchases, security, bell boys, family, girlfriend, etc) 
• Probability: 5%
• 64 year old dude shoots off automatic fire for ten minutes by himself
• Probability: 5%
• 64 year old high-roller gambler has no camera or video footage anywhere of him since 2011 (friends, family, play mates, business partners, girlfriends, random players, etc)
• Probability: less than 1%, virtually impossible

So, the story as reported by the authorities is virtually impossible.  Only superman or Iron Man can do the crap they claim he has done.

Evidence supporting CIA-type undercover operative:

• International travel regularly
• Age and experience: gray hair and beard
• Extremely intelligent with numbers
• Worked for defense contractors previously
• "retired" at 54
• Disappear from family contact for months at a time
• Family never knew when he would show up
• Plane record trail links to security contractor out of Langley
• Lots of money playing at a casino
• casinos will not let you win big as a professional gambler - they will eventually ban you from premises if you are "too good."
• Possible laundering of money in collusion with the casinos to fund black operations for undercover work: guns, drugs, girls, supplies, etc.
• Vegas was run by the mafia in the old days, so collusion with the underworld would not be surprising.  
• Missing photo and video evidence (to the public at any rate)
• casinos have footage of everything - they cannot afford not to!
• It was a terrorist event
• public
• shocking
• killing of women, possibly children, and other youngsters
• targeting of a Scots-Irish American ethnic group
• His death photos show very clean pants and shoes
• Not wearing boots, or tennis shoes, but leather loafers
• Gloves appear clean in death photos
• Death photo appears to be an execution
• Lack of any darkness or sociopathic facial features in the photos we have seen of him
• missing video footage of Paddock: 
• cannot expose an undercover counter-terrorist operative at any cost!
• ISIS was desperate to claim responsibility several times
• supports strongly the undercover counter-terrorism angle

Thus the most plausible (and possible) story, as I mentioned in a previous post:

• Paddock was an undercover counter-terrorist operative
• Paddock was responsible for thwarting this particular incident, but something went wrong, and got himself killed.
• Since this was a black operation, there is no way the public can learn about the details of such operations
• Details would expose undercover people
• details would expose methods and procedures
• details would give terrorists valuable information to increase the efficiency of their operations
• Details would shut down every secret government agency

Less plausible, but possible scenarios:

• Paddock was radicalized by some terrorist group within the past 6 months, had a shooting team in place, and was a martyr for Allah or Satan.