Fundamentals of Analysis

Fundamentals of Analysis

What is the essence of analysis?  It is categories.  It is like biological organization into animal and plant kingdoms.  Perhaps it can be vertebrates or invertebrates.  Under each category are subcategories that do not cross fit into both categories.  It is mutual exclusivity that defines analysis.  Break things into categorical pieces, and ensure that the pieces within a level are mutual exclusive categories.  This is the process of analysis. 

We Have a Fire

Let us take a concrete example and perform some analysis.  We have a fire.  A building burned down.  What is required for a fire?  Three things: (1) Oxygen, (2) Fuel, and (3) Sufficient Heat.  This is called an AND gate in logic, which means, all three factors must be present, or Fire does not exist.  Take away any one of these three, and there is no fire.  So, let us ask the question.  Was there sufficient oxygen?  Probably so, unless we were under laboratory conditions where someone removed oxygen, we can safely assume there was a 20% concentration in the air.  Was there fuel?  What can be fuel to a fire?  Wood, gasoline, cloth, dust, organic material, etc.  One must identify the fuel.  What else do we need?  We need a source of heat.  What could be a source of heat to ignite the Fuel?  Cigarette lighter, stove, matches, hot wire from a shorted electrical circuit, pilot light from a gas stove, flint material rubbed together to produce a spark if near gasoline.  Thus, to establish the cause of the fire, one must identify the three things necessary to make the fire, and clearly connect them to the physical manifestation of the three requirements.  What gave oxygen?  Air.  What gave fuel?  Gasoline.  What gave heat?  A hot stove.  Congratulations!  You have performed basic cause and effect, and have identified by analysis the cause of the fire.

Murder Scene

Let’s use an example with identifying a suspect for a crime.  There is a dead man on the floor of a hotel on the second floor.  The dead man is 230 pounds, muscular, and 29 years old.  His arm is broken, and his face is smashed in.  The door bolt is broken and the door handle on the bathroom door is broken off.

Who could have done this?  Let us look at the first thing: Skill.  Who would have the skills to do this?  Who can break off a door bolt?  A strong man - perhaps a muscular man.  Could it be a school girl?  No.  A teenage 11 year old boy?  No.  An 80 year old woman?  No.  A 70 year old man?  No.  To overcome and kill a man 230 pounds and muscular, what would he look like?  Probably muscular, very strong, not a skinny pimply faced teenager.  Probably a trained fighter, boxer, or martial artist.  

So, we have established categories above, and excluded a lot of options in the analysis.  Male, 20-35 years old, muscular, fighting skills, strong as hell, strong hands.  So, this eliminates a lot of people so that one can focus on the profile of the suspect.  You do not strip search a 100 year old woman in a nursing home to see if she was the suspect, even if she hated the dead man and said she wanted to kill him.  She just could not have done the job.  Maybe hired for the job, but not performed the job.  

Rapid Heart Pulse

What is the cause of a rapid heart pulse?  Adrenaline causes the heart to pump faster.  Why does the heart pump faster?  What does the heart do?  It mainly provides oxygen to all things in the body.  Thus, when the heart beats fast, something in the body is asking for more oxygen.  When you run fast, your muscles need more oxygen, and secrete chemicals and hormones to signal the need for oxygen, which signals an increase in adrenaline, which raises the heart rate.   Something is lacking oxygen, and demands action from the heart to provide the extra oxygen by pumping faster.  If you are resting in your bed and your heart is racing, what does this mean?  Something is asking for oxygen.  Perhaps your lungs are clogged from pneumonia and your body is not getting enough oxygen from a regular heart rate, and thus, the system demands faster pulse to make up for the deficiency.  Perhaps you are scared to death of something, and your body signals with chemicals and hormones to prepare for Fight or Flight, which raises the heart rate to prepare for very intense muscle movement for a Fight or Flight.  

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What is the takeaway?  Ask yourself “What are the necessary conditions for this to have happened?”  “What could have caused each one of these conditions?”  Write down all the conditions, and trace backward to a cause of the condition.  Make a picture of cause and effect.

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Freddy Martini  

Our Fantasies of Cause and Effect

Our Fantasies of Cause and Effect

We tell each other stories.  Did you know that the foundational story of human psychology is Cause and Effect?  Yes, cause and effect is just a story!  Read on for your enlightened enjoyment.  Challenge yourself and your illusions of common sense and you will be more powerful - more enlightened.  Knowledge is power.

You walk into the front door.  Your hand instinctively feels for the wall.  It is dark.  You grope.  The wall - it is still there.  Cold.  Slick.  Finger bump!  Then, you feel it.  You feel the light switch.  You flip the switch.  The light goes on instantly.

This makes perfect sense to us.  Flip a switch, then a light goes on.  Flipping of the switch causes the light to go on.  We do not ever say,  “The light going on causes the flipping of a switch.”  This last statement sounds a bit bizarre to us.  It violates our sense of cause and effect.  It violates our sense of timing where effect always follows cause in our minds - pull the trigger, then gun fires - never “The gun fires and then causes the trigger to be pulled.”

So, what does all this mean for us - we smart people?  You are smart, right?  So, follow me on this adventure into one of our most basic assumptions, and how it may shock us to know that these assumptions are build upon an edifice of sand, styrofoam, and warped plastic trash you may find on the cozy corner of a busy beach in the swamps of Vietnam.  (Where the bloody hell did that image come from???!!!!)

His name is David.  David Hume.  David Hume blasted to shrapnel, smoke and ashes all of our notions of cause and effect.  What did he do and why should we smart people care?  Partially, the answer implies that we have a lot more control of our lives through the use of our minds that we think we have.  We will get back to this point later.  For now, let us examine the foundations of cause and effect in a simple way so anyone can understand.

We perceive a series of sensations.  We perceive a flying brick.  We perceive a glass window.  We perceive the brick strike the window.  We perceive the shattering of the window.  We perceive a broken window.  Thus, a flying brick is followed by a broken window.  We say that  the flying brick caused the broken window.  

What did we perceive?  We perceived a series of sensations followed by other sensations.  Nothing intrinsically forces us to link these sensations.  We cannot even be sure that our memories accurately recall any sensations.  Can we be sure of any sensation we do not experience now?  Our sense impressions are always changing.  What makes us so sure of cause and effect?  The answer, my smart people: nothing.

What is cause and effect, and why is it such a core part of our thinking?  Can we think in any other way?  The answer: no.  Why?

When humans speak to each other in any way, everything is based upon the structure of a story - a narrative.  Stories and narratives have a specific flow, a structure, a way of going from point A to point B in an expected sequence and structure.  What is cause an effect?  It is the foundational form of a story.  It is the simplest story possible.  I flipped the switch and then the light came on.  That is a very simple story.  I showed him the finger (The Bird) and he got pissed off.  Another story.  The scientist applied a voltage, and then, current flowed in the circuit, and the light came on.  Another story, in the same eternal structure.  

We may pause here and ask  the question about Truth.  Does not science tell us what really is going on?  Well, no.  Science largely explains cause and effect, and any observation is based upon a series of sensations, like any other observing.  Our conclusions based upon observations is a story of cause and effect.  

Thus, even science is based upon a story.  Like the Bible.  Like astrology.  Like Shakespeare.  We have a deep human need to have stories - cause and effect.  When we feel we have figured out cause and effect of a particular instance, we feel that we have control over our world.  Perhaps this is an illusion, but we humans cannot live without explanations - stories - cause and effect.  

What does this mean practically?  Let me tell you this, my smart friends: this means power.  It means power over your life.  How?  You can capture any narrative, and then you can change it at will.  Create a new story.  Create a new explanation.  Create a new narrative.  Your life, your reputation, what people know about you, what people say about you - all this is a story.  And, you have the ability to influence and even completely change the narrative.  This is your power.  When you learn the rules of telling stories, and explaining things and cause and effect, you can change the narrative of any story.  This is why during a “scandal” in politics and reporting, political thought leaders put so much emphasis on “controlling the narrative.”  When you control the narrative, you are in control - serious control.  

Think about that for a moment.  What is a reinterpretation of the facts?  It is a story based upon the facts.  Do you like the story?  Does the story benefit you?  If it does not, you can learn to rewrite the narrative.  This, my smart friends is the ultimate power over your life.  You can rewrite your story.  The more plausible the story is the one that wins.  

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So, my friends - my smart friends - change your story and change your life.

Just do it.  Now.

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Freddy Martini