Absence
of Evidence and Evidence of Absence
Recall the Black Swan
The
Problem of Induction is haunting as I intimated here
in my review of Jeffery Kasser’s lecture on the problem. You have probably heard the saying, “There is
no evidence to support that,” as if providing proof that the lack of evidence
means something. The converse is the
case, “I have tested 1000 pieces of copper and all conduct electricity,
therefore all copper conducts electricity.”
This is the problem of induction because when I find one piece of copper
that does not conduct electricity, the claim is proven false. This is also called the Black Swan problem
when the rare event – the Black Swan – has not yet been admitted into the
evidence locker, as it were, and we conclude that there are no black swans –
until someone finds a black swan!
We
have probably heard the saying, “Proof is in the positive.” However, we all know that providing positive
evidence proves nothing, because one piece of negative evidence disproves any
theory. The only proofs that we know of
are in mathematics and in Deductive Reasoning.
Inductive Reasoning has no methodology of proof.
Lawyers Listen Up!
This
provides lawyers with methods to attack any attempt in court to prove
guilt. Since proving guilt involves
evidence to a fact, and since evidence is often largely be based upon
scientific principles, which all are based on Inductive Reasoning and methods,
we can logically attack and destroy any evidence based upon science as invalid.
One
legal strategy is to allow the prosecution to have fun and use the testimony
and resources of science in argument.
Afterward, the defense can merely use the methods of the Philosophy of
Science in attacking the Problem of Induction - and even the Problem of
Demarcation for good measure – to systematically destroy any prosecutor who is
so foolish to base his arguments upon science.
This is basically setting up the prosecution for an exterminating
ambush. More data means nothing when one
piece of evidence can disprove a case and absence of evidence is not evidence
of absence.
Such
a methodology would be good against planted evidence. It would bring back the old-fashioned concept
of eye-witnesses for proof.
A More Volatile and Unpredictable
World
We
live in fantasies that the system will “take care of us” because there are
smart people somewhere who have everything figured out with regard to our
safety and our care. The problem with
this is that we have been sold a narrative from the priests of modernity –
scientists and those with scientific pretensions– who have a vested interest in
pretending that they have all the answers and everything is under control. Nothing can be further from the truth. The world is filled with Black Swans ready to
strike at any moment as Nicholas Taleb has told us in his book of the same
name. Everybody wants security and there
are soothsayers out there ready to tell us what we want to hear.
The Storyline
Humans
cannot think logically. So, how do
humans think? I think Ludwig
Wittgenstein showed that we all play games called language games and we sit
around telling each other stories. There
is the narrative. The scientific method
is essentially a narrative – a particular kind of story we tell each other,
pretending it is true. We gather around
the campfire and soothe ourselves with stories with a happy ending – we live
happily ever after because we have everything figured out. The Lord’s Prayer, the Sacraments, the Sacred
Liturgy, the Gospel, and the Scientific Method are all Narratives and stories. Which ones are closer to the truth? Perhaps those that speak eternal truths to
human beings throughout the ages are a little closer to the truth than new
methods. This is not to say that the new
methods do not have their uses, but perhaps the stories and the narratives that
have withstood the test of time have some sort of Darwinian way of keeping
large sectors of humans alive through the centuries and should not be ignored with
blind neophilia.
///
Freddy Martini
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