The Problem of Induction: Why science is nonsense.

The Problem of Induction

Why science is nonsense. 

What is the Problem of Induction and why should we care?  It is the foundation of science – whatever that is supposed to mean.  And, since science is seen by a lot of people to have some authority, we need to understand the basis of Induction.

All Dogs Bark

In Deductive Reasoning, the conclusions are contained within the premises analytically by taking the premises apart.  For example: 

• All dogs bark (Premise)
• Spot is a dog (Premise)
• Therefore, Spot barks (Conclusion)

In Deductive Reasoning, as in the above example, the conclusion is a matter of teasing out the parts of the premises.  The conclusion is already inside of the premises in some form or as a piece of the premises, just waiting to be rearranged into something new – the conclusion.

Copper Conducts Electrons - maybe

What is Inductive Reasoning?  Inductive reasoning seeks to establish a new conclusion that is not contained in the premises.  For example:

·         Scientists have tested 100,000 samples of copper. (Premise)

·         All these samples of copper conduct electricity. (Premise)

·         Therefore, all copper conducts electricity.  (Conclusion)

All Swans are White – really?

This, my students, is all there is to science.  There is one problem.  It is not a solid basis for reasoning.  Let us try another example.

·         Scientists have examined 100,000 swans. (Premise)

·         All these swans are white. (Premise)

·         Therefore, all swans are white.  (Conclusion)

You may have heard of the Black Swan.  Nicholas Taleb wrote a brilliant book called the Black Swan. 

Karl Popper Says “Slow Down Cowboy”

You may have also heard of Karl Popper.  Karl Popper said that we cannot prove scientific theories, but we can only disprove them.  Why is this so?  Well, if I find one Black Swan, your above reasoning is proven as false.  If I find one example of a piece of copper that does not conduct electricity, the above scientific reasoning is false.

Shocking Conclusion: Science is Nonsense

The conclusion to this little exercise is that the foundations of our entire worldview do not exist.  Science is a complete failure as a guide to truth because none of it can be shown to be true.

This, my lads, is why the Problem of Induction is so important, and why we must struggle to come to terms with it – it destroys our modern priesthood of scientists making pronouncements to us with authority saying “this is scientific truth,” when in fact there is no scientific truth.

 Freddy Martini