Prisoner’s
Dilemma
Do you screw the other guy over or do you
wait until he screws you over? The
answer is simple. Mathematics solves
this problem simply and elegantly – specifically a branch of mathematics called
game theory. But, we will keep it simple
here for those who are algebraically challenged.
Very
Simple Answer
If there is a probability greater than 50%
that you will have to deal with the other guy again in the future, you are
better off not screwing him over.
Otherwise, you should screw him over - so the theory suggests.
Illustration
Here is an illustration of the game:
Suboptimal
Game
Why is it suboptimal, why is it important,
and who the hell cares? Well, we
encounter the Prisoner’s Dilemma every day.
Why should I hold up my part of the bargain when I do not know if the
other guy will or not? If I renege, he
gets screwed over. If I do not, he can
screw me over. The best outcome is if we
both keep our part of the deal, but how can I know that, and do I allow myself
to be played like a fool if he reneges?
No, I am no fool, so I renege, and he does too. We have to, because we do not trust each
other and there is no chance of a future relationship or a deal, so the optimal
strategy is to be a bastard. Look at the
diagram. Study it well. Learn the lessons.
Optimal
Recurring Strategy
Scott Stevens in his course at the Teaching
Company on Game
Theory says that with simulations and some mathematics, the optimal
strategy in recurring games of the Prisoner’s Dilemma does indeed exist. Here it is: in your next move, do exactly
what your adversary did in the previous move.
If he remained silent, remain silent; if he confessed, confess. Another way of putting the same point:
- Be easily provoked and retaliate immediately.
- Be easy to forgive and forget immediately.
Somebody wants to play nasty? It is Tit for Tat. It is mathematical, scientific, and the optimal strategy.
These two points taken together, my friends, is a very important key to
the Game of Life.
Be careful out there. And, have fun.
Freddy Martini
No comments:
Post a Comment